今日分享：怎么综合分析5星股票？
5starsstocks - also known as 5 stars stocks, passive stocks, dividend stocks, value stocks and income stocks
5starsstocks Rating Definitions
| Rating | Criteria | Meaning | Investment Advice |
|---|---|---|---|
| ★★★★★ | Price ≤ 80% intrinsic value, wide moat, high quality | Deeply undervalued, top-quality, long-term opportunity | Strong Buy |
| ★★★★ | 80%-90% intrinsic value, narrow moat, good quality | Undervalued with solid growth visibility | Buy |
| ★★★ | 90%-110% intrinsic value, moderate moat or average quality | Fair value, hold and monitor | Hold |
| ★★ | 110%-120% intrinsic value, weak moat, elevated risk | Slightly overvalued, increased risk | Cautious |
| ★ | >120% intrinsic value, no moat, low quality | Overvalued with downside risk | Sell |
Morningstar 5-Star Rating - Analytical Framework
The Morningstar 5-Star Rating is a quantitative benchmark assessing fund performance through risk-adjusted returns within peer groups. Funds are categorized by asset class, strategy, and risk profile to ensure 'apples-to-apples' comparisons. The rating system employs Morningstar Risk-Adjusted Return (MRAR), a proprietary metric rooted in expected utility theory, which penalizes downside volatility more heavily than upside fluctuations.
1. 5starsstocks Core Philosophy
A stock’s fair value is fundamentally based on the discounted value of its future free cash flows, reflecting sustainable profitability and growth potential, together with industry competitive advantage and financial health.
2. 5starsstocks Rating Procedures and Metrics
(1) Intrinsic Value Estimation
Using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model as the core valuation tool:
- Project free cash flows for 5-10 years with reasonable growth and margin assumptions.
- Apply an appropriate Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) representing risk.
- Calculate terminal value for long-term value beyond projection period.
(2) Market Price vs. Intrinsic Value Ratio
Compare current market price to intrinsic value to gauge undervaluation or overvaluation:
- ≤ 80% intrinsic value — significantly undervalued
- 80%-90% — undervalued, potential buy
- 90%-110% — fairly valued, hold
- 110%-120% — slightly overvalued, be cautious
- ≥ 120% — overvalued, consider selling
(3) Economic Moat Assessment
Evaluate competitive advantages such as business model, barriers to entry, brand, customer loyalty, patents:
- Wide moat: sustainable pricing power and consistent profits
- Narrow moat: some competitive edge but vulnerable to market pressures
- No moat: lacking durable competitive advantage
3. 5starsstocks Quality Assessment
- Financial Health: low leverage, strong cash flow, stable margins
- Earnings Quality: core business generates steady income, operating cash flow ≥ net income
- Management Strength: clear strategy, transparent governance, prudent capital allocation
- Growth Potential: positive industry trends and company innovation or expansion capacity
4. 5starsstocks Risk Adjustment and Sensitivity
- Adjust discount rates to reflect macroeconomic, industry, and firm-specific risks.
- Conduct sensitivity tests on key assumptions to assess valuation range robustness.
5. 5starsstocks Summary
The 5-star rating system emphasizes the "intrinsic value" concept of value investing, takes into account the company's moat and operating quality, and combines reasonable risk adjustment and financial health to form a systematic stock selection evaluation standard. This system not only helps to determine whether a stock is overvalued or undervalued, but more importantly, it screens out investment targets with good quality and long-term competitive advantages, providing investors with scientific and practical buying and selling suggestions.